By Lydia Ntourountou
February
2024 is considered the election year, as at least 64 countries are meant to hold national elections over the upcoming ten months. The results of these elections will not only determine their political and economic state, but in some cases they will also fundamentally shape their approach to international relations. As the diplomatic ties between the United States and China are already causing multiple concerns on an international scale, the upcoming American presidential election could unleash disastrous repercussions. Amidst this tense climate, Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) held its presidential elections on Jan. 13 2024, and the results are worthy of analysis.
A Very Brief History of Cross-Strait Relations, with the U.S. in the Middle
The relations between China and Taiwan are complicated, and result from a long history marked by the first Sino-Japanese war in which Taiwan was ceded to Japan. However, Beijing’s position–claiming that Taiwan is a part of China–has remained firm since then, as Xi Jin-Ping reminded us in his New Year’s speech: “China and Taiwan will surely be reunified.” The Shanghai Communiqué (1972), issued by the US and China on the last evenings of President Richard Nixon’s diplomatic visit could be considered to have bolstered China’s permanent position. In this document, the U.S. formally acknowledged the fact that “all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China,” contrary to the modern gestures of support that the U.S. is often seen offering Taiwan.
The complicated relations between Taiwan and the U.S., which in return define Cross-Strait relations, are evident in the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) which states the fact that the US does not have diplomatic relationships with the island, all while confirming military support in case of a potential Chinese invasion. Tensions between the three countries mounted in 1995, after Taiwan’s President at the time, Lee Teng-hui, visited the U.S., and China objected strongly to the U.S. decision to grant him a visa. Following this event, multiple ballistic missiles were fired in close proximity to the island, an ongoing tactic of the Chinese military.
Instead of only applying political pressure, China has also tried to indirectly create vulnerability as well as dependency in the Taiwanese economy. According to Al Jazeera, in 2021 China banned the importation of pineapples produced in southern Taiwan due to pest issues. However, prior, Taiwanese pineapple farmers exported the majority of their fruits to China (an industry worth around 284$m a year), and this abrupt restriction resulted in an incredible financial loss for the farmers and the larger economy. Though a very simple example, this showcases the potential fallouts that could erupt in case China decides to limit its commercial relations with Taiwan, especially since the cross-strait trade was valued at 205$ billion in 2022, according to data collected from the Taiwanese Ministry of Finance.
The Long Awaited Elections
Taiwan follows the regime of a representative democratic republic, with a multi-party system, currently dominated by two major parties: the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in favor of Taiwan’s sovereignty, and the Kuomintang (KMT) which advocated for closer relations with mainland China. This constitutes another factor of conflict, considering the political situation in China is often criticized as authoritarian due to the lack of democratic procedures.
Tsai Ing-wen, former President of Taiwan, shaped a political landscape characterized by the strong refusal to recognise the “1992 consensus,” and made clear that Taiwan would not recede to Chinese threats. On the Jan. 13, after her presidential term expired, elections were held and the three main candidates were as following: Lai Ching-te, previously a legislator from DPP, Hou Yu-ih from KMT who advocates discussions with Chinese Communist Party to avoid the rise of tensions, and lastly Ko Wen-je from Taiwan’s People’s Party and who, according to the Economist, has been more preoccupied with domestic issues than Cross-Strait relations. However, the Cross-Strait tensions did not prevent the voters from electing a democratic and “separatist” President Lai Ching-te, with a plurality of 40.05 percent.
By choosing Lai Ching-te as their representative, the people of Taiwan confirm their support for the political “legacy” built by Tsai Ing-Wen, and which Lai Ching-te can not only preserve, but evolve according to his own political vision. The new President himself announced multiple times during his campaign that “there is no need to declare independence, because Taiwan is already an independent sovereign state.” The results of the Taiwanese elections are only one of the many factors that could aggravate the political situation in the South China Sea, and that implicate the involvement of external forces, such as the U.S. or Europe. Thus the following months will be revelatory, in a political landscape that is becoming increasingly tense, with no hopes of dialogue nor compromise.