Speculations Abound as NATO Awaits New Chief

The head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the Secretary General – a chief civil servant  responsible for directing the organization. NATO chose its Secretary General for the first time in 1952, after long negotiations leading to the appointment of a British official. Since then, twelve distinct diplomats have officially held the position, representing eight countries in total. Among them, three chiefs were from the United Kingdom, three from the Netherlands, two from Belgium, and one from Italy, Germany, Spain, Denmark, and Norway. Since 2014, this position has been held by Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister. Even though the usual term of office lasts four years, he has been at the top of NATO for almost a decade. 

Last July, member states again agreed to prolong his presidency, this time only for one year. We shall then know the name of the next Secretary General by Oct. 1, 2024 when Stoltenberg officially should step down as chief. 

These past ten years have been a time of unprecedented challenges for the Alliance. One of them is the ongoing armed conflicts in the Middle East, where the U.S. plays a crucial role. Other challenges include the detachment from the possibility of engaging in war shared across the continent and confusing and worrying communication coming from the former POTUS Donald Trump, who is today more than ever likely to make a big return to the White House after the November election. 

Trump’s statements and social media activity neatly show that there are reasons to be worried about NATO’s future and integrity. Those should raise concerns, especially while there is ongoing Russian bloodshed at the borders of NATO in Ukraine. Furthermore, Donald Trump is known for his rather friendly approach to Putin. Nevertheless, it may be hard to demand from American society, never directly touched by the bombs and war, to fully see a threat coming from the Kremlin and cordial relations with Putin’s Russia. 

What is surprising is that there is no official procedure regulated in treaties concerning the appointment of the next Secretary General — usually, it’s done through hours of multilateral negotiations.

As of today, Mark Rutte, an outgoing Dutch prime minister and the president of the Democrats66, is leading the race, held behind closed doors with unwritten rules. However, even though favored by most of the Western European governments, Rutte is not the only contestant. 

Many names have been mentioned, only to withdraw from the race later. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and former U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace reportedly even discussed his candidacy with U.S. President Joe Biden. However, both subsequently withdrew from consideration without providing any explanation. For now, there are two other candidates openly expressing their willingness to run NATO, apart from Rutte, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, currently wanted by Russian officials; and Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins. 

In the unwritten procedure, there is no specified set of qualities required to become the next Secretary General. As Rutte is considered a more stable and ‘safer’ choice for the alliance, it rightly raises the question of state equality in NATO. Rutte is the second longest serving Prime Minister in Europe (right after Viktor Orbàn in Hungary). However, his years in office are not even close to being described as stable for Dutch politics, as the public had expressed it in the last parliamentary elections, giving the biggest number of chairs to Geert Wilders’ right-wing, populist Party for Freedom. 

Rightly, Rutte’s assumed appointment raised questions of the equality and balance of powers in the Alliance – are the Baltic States, Poland, or any other country that joined NATO after the fall of the Iron Curtain equal in the race, after more than 20 years of partaking in its existence?

When asked by journalists if there still is a desire to participate in the race, Kallas without a moment of hesitation responded with one word: “Yes.” She explained that she believes the next chief of NATO should be somebody whose country has spent two percent (or more) of its GDP on defence, as required by the North Atlantic Treaty. She also said it would be beneficial to see a woman in the role. While Estonia is spending more than three percent of its GDP on defense, the Netherlands is not quite close to hitting the two percent target. 

Kallas has been Estonia’s Prime Minister for more than three years now. She leads  the Reform Party and served twice as a member of the parliament (Rigikogu) and was a member of the European Parliament. Upon the conclusion of her term, Politico recognized her as one of the forty most influential MEPs and one of the most influential women in Brussels. 

Already as an acting Prime Minister, she was recongized as a leading voice in international support for Ukraine attacked by Russia, for which The Statesman called her the ‘Europe’s New Iron Lady’. Regarding this conflict, Kallas rejects any possibility of a peace deal that would cede part of the Ukrainian territories to the aggressor and hold onto strong and unconditional support for Ukraine. She, as most of the Eastern European and Baltic leaders, sees Russia not only as an invader in Ukraine but as an existential threat to their state and nationhood.  

After last year’s elections in which Kallas led her party to another victory, she formed a coalition with the Social Democratic Party and Estonia 200. One of the first bills passed in the new parliament legalized same-sex marriage and secured the right to adoption for same-sex couples, making Estonia the first post-Soviet, and Baltic country to do so. 

In February, Russian officials announced that Kallas had been included in the Russian interior ministry's list of individuals wanted on criminal charges. Allegedly, the charges were linked to the removal of Soviet World War II monuments in Estonia, however, she dismissed the warrant as a ‘scare tactic’ of the Kremlin. 

If it will not be for the next NATO chief, her candidature to replace Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, is discussed behind closed doors with a strong expectation she would be supported in that race by Emmanuel Macron. However, as Politico points out, that topic remains sensitive in a few EU capitals, as not every member regards an aggressive anti-Russian approach as the right way to handle today’s geopolitics. 

Despite the obvious consensus arising, Rutte’s candidature may be headed to clash with clear opposition coming from the Hungarian prime minister, as it is not a secret that the Dutch politician has not quite been on the same page as Budapest’s Orbàn. There is a strong possibility of a new candidate appearing out of nowhere which would completely change the rules of the game. Unless something is surely decided, every other thing uninterruptedly remains an option. What is expected of the next Secretary General? Keeping the peace in Europe, which may be harder than at any time in history before (and hopefully reaching agreements ending the war in Ukraine) and, of course, making sure the U.S. stays on board. It will be a time of a hazardous game, with opportunities of great gain and loss placed on two opposite sides of the balance scale. And rightfully so –  ill-considered and irresponsible decisions could redefine the trajectory of European geopolitics.